Preshow Recap

The show's just about to start, so let's take a quick overview of my thoughts on which nominees should be and will be winners. I do have a couple changes and a case where I don't think I had submitted a decision.

Enjoy the production, and if you really need something Oscar-related to fill your time, The Hollywood Reporter has an excellent "Brutally Honest Oscar Voter Ballot" series you should check out. After, you know, reading everything I've posted. Obviously.


Actor in a leading role:

• should: Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
• will: Bruce Dern in Nebraska

Actor in a supporting role:

• should: Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
• will: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Actress in a leading role:

• should: Cate Blanchet in Blue Jasmine
• will: Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

Actress in a supporting role:

• should: Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
• will: Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

Animated feature film:

• should: Ernest et Célestine
• will: Frozen

Cinematography:

• should: Philippe Le Sourd for Yi dai zong shi
• will: Phedon Papamichael for Nebraska

Costume design:

• should: Michael O’Connor for The Invisible Woman
• will: Catherine Martin for The Great Gatsby

Directing:

• should: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
• will: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

Documentary feature:

• should: The Act of Killing
• will: The Act of Killing

Documentary short subject:

• should: CaveDigger
• will:  The Lady in No. 6: Music Saved My Life*

Film editing:

• should: Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger for Gravity
• will: Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger for Gravity

Foreign language film:

• should: The Broken Circle Breakdown
• will: La grande bellezza (The Great Beauty)

Makeup and hairstyling:

• should: Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny for The Lone Ranger
• will: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews for Dallas Buyers Club**

Music (original score):

• should: Thomas Newman for Saving Mr. Banks
• will: Thomas Newman for Saving Mr. Banks

Music (original song):

• should: "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; lyric by Paul Hewson
• will: "Let It Go" from Frozen; music and lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

Best picture:

• should: 12 Years a Slave
• will: 12 Years a Slave

Production design:

• should: The Great Gatsby production design: Catherine Martin; set decoration: Beverley Dunn
• will: The Great Gatsby production design: Catherine Martin; set decoration: Beverley Dunn

Short film (animated):

• should: Tsukumo (Possessions)
• will: Get a Horse!***

Short film (live action):

• should: Avant Que de Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
• will: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)

Sound editing:

• should: Glenn Freemantle for Gravity
• will: Glenn Freemantle for Gravity

Sound mixing:

• should: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro for Gravity
• will: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro for Gravity

Visual effects:

• should: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould for Star Trek Into Darkness
• will: Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton for Star Trek Into Darkness

Writing (adapted screenplay):

• should: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight
• will: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight

Writing (original screenplay):

• should: Spike Jonez for Her
• will: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle

*I had originally pegged Karama Has No Walls to win, but I've become less confident in that pick [ed. coin flip] every day.
**Really? I originally picked Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny for The Lone Ranger? That was a mistake.
***I'm not sure I ever actually said what I think will win in the original article - just what should. Whoops.